Interestingly enough, there’s a real possibility of some surprising holds this weekend!
As for the rest of the top ten, it’s never fun to have to predict how movies are going to do in the wake of a big blockbuster coming out that same weekend. When it comes to Marvel movies, they tend to appeal to a very broad audience and will suck a lot of money away from all the other titles. Now, “a lot” is relative as for some of these titles, the drop they’ll see won’t be huge, but it’s still likely to be bigger than what is typical for them. Despite this though, there are some films that I do expect to perform relatively well this weekend, particularly the top two (outside of Multiverse of Madness).
Leading the Box office, we’re most likely to see The Bad Guys, and Sonic 2 with the biggest grosses thanks to relatively solid holds. I’m expecting this largely because both films have skewed younger than the average audience. Multiverse of Madness is aimed straight at the 18-34 age demographic (which remains a driving force at the Box office), and while Marvel movies generally have broader appeal, the fact that Sam Raimi is directing, and is likely to have added more horror elements, may cause the film to play to a bit of an older crowd. Meanwhile, The Bad Guys has already shown itself to have strength with the family audience specifically, the “kid and family” audience, so I do expect it to be able to weather the Doctor Strange storm by being the “kid-friendly “alternative. Sonic 2, on the other hand, is likely to have a bit more trouble as the cross-generational audience for that film (made up of kids who saw the 1st movie and their parents who played the original games) overlaps more with the comic book superhero audience that Multiverse of Madness is courting, thus a bigger drop is to be expected. Ever the optimist I see The Bad Guys dropping about -40% for a gross this weekend of $9.73 million in second place, while Sonic 2 drops a greater -50% for a gross of $5.77 million in third.
Without a doubt, the next film on this list is going to have the most interesting run this weekend outside of Doctor Strange. Everything, Everywhere, All at Once, the quirky little indie that could, is going up against its big-budget blockbuster counterpart. It has to be one of the most fascinating showdowns at the box office in years. Back when No Way Home was released, I said it was a very balsy move for A24 to put a trailer for Everything, Everywhere, All at Once in front of that had mega-budget film given their similar subject matter and how No Way Home’s narrative was supposed to lead into another multiverse movie, Doctor Strange 2. Of course, Everything, Everywhere, All at Once has more than lived up to the hype in terms of critical reviews as well as its incredible box office performance. Sure, that performance is nowhere near the level of No Way Home or likely that of Multiverse of Madness, but relative to its budget, its scale, and its niche appeal, Everything Everywhere All at Once has been a force at the box office since its release. Given it similar subject matter to Multiverse of Madness, I’m urgently curious to see how well it can hold up against its bigger, more family-friendly counterpart. I have a sneaking suspicion that the film actually will do relatively well. Similarly to how The Bad Guys is likely to hold well given its counter-programming status as the “kid-friendly”, I suspect that Everything, Everywhere, All at Once may have the ability to play like the more “indie, arthouse, grown-up, sophisticated” version of Multiverse of Madness and still continue to carve out a niche for itself. I could be completely wrong, but I’m going to make a bold claim and say that Everything, Everywhere, All at Once will hold by 45% bent and gross $3.04 million or million this weekend. It’s already made it up to $37 million, so this weekend will likely get it to $40 million domestically.
After that, most of the next entries are not looking so hot. Fifth place is likely to go to Fantastic Beasts: the Secrets of Dumbledore which has already lost a ton of steam. I’m predicting a drop of at least 65% for a gross of about $2.9 million. Sixth place will likely find The Northman which could potentially perform a little bit better, in a similar fashion to Everything, Everywhere, All at Once as a more sophisticated, adult option this weekend, but I still see it dropping around 55% for a gross of $2.86 million, especially given the fact that it will likely be losing a lot of IMAX screens to Doctor Strange as well.
In seventh place, I’m thinking that The Lost City will likely still hold well, especially given that it continues to court the older female audience, an audience that has been historically underserved by comic book superhero movies. The expanded presence of the Scarlet Witch in Multiverse of Madness will likely boost the female appeal of that movie, however, given that she seems to be the villain of the piece, and that she’s likely to appeal more to younger women, The Lost City should still manage a solid hold. I’m picturing a drop of around 45% for a gross of $ 2.09 million as the film inches ever closer to the $100 million mark.
Likely to close out the top ten are some pretty big droppers. The Unbearable Weight of Massive talent is already something of a flash in the pan and will likely be dropping precipitously over the next few weeks. I’m predicting a 55% drop for a gross of about $1.74 million. Perhaps the biggest drop in the top ten will likely go to Memory, as the Liam Nesson actioner is not likely to have particularly good legs in this less-pandemic dulled market like those of his most recent films. Closing out the top ten will likely be Father Stu, which does court a different audience from almost every movie in the top ten, and it’s likely to post a solid hold of 45%, which would give it a gross of about $1.21 million. Its box office run is coming to an end pretty soon, but I do expect it to continue to follow the pattern it’s been following behind Courageous. Expect this to be its last weekend in the top ten.